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Consumer Financial Health: Record Lows and Highs Thumbnail

Consumer Financial Health: Record Lows and Highs

Consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of overall economic activity. In theory, when consumers feel financially secure and optimistic, they tend to spend more, driving corporate profits and economic growth. When they feel uncertain, they may tighten their belts. In reality, how consumers behave depends on many factors, especially because not all consumers are alike. For this reason, having a holistic understanding of the financial health of consumers is one of the most important ways for long-term investors to make sense of the current environment.

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Two Fed Eras: Greenspan’s Legacy and the Future Under Warsh Thumbnail

Two Fed Eras: Greenspan’s Legacy and the Future Under Warsh

Alan Greenspan once said "since I've become a central banker, I have learned to mumble with great incoherence." Greenspan, who passed away recently at the age of 100, served as the Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006 and became one of the most influential economic figures of the 20th century.1 As we reflect on his legacy just days after Kevin Warsh chaired his first Fed meeting, the parallels between the two leaders highlight several changes in how the Fed might operate in the coming years.

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Tech Stocks, IPOs, and Higher Interest Rates

The S&P 500 recently surpassed 7,500 for the first time, marking another milestone in a year that has seen many new all-time highs. This is positive for investors, especially because several sectors have contributed to this rally. These trends have also fueled enthusiasm for IPOs, particularly ones related to artificial intelligence, after years of relatively few companies going public. This is occurring despite ongoing concerns over inflation, high oil prices, and hopes for a peace deal in Iran that has not yet materialized. In contrast to the stock market, these challenges have weighed on the bond market, pushing long-term interest rates higher. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, briefly reached a nearly 20-year high before settling back toward 5%. Since headlines like these can create uncertainty for markets, maintaining perspective and balance are more important than ever.

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What Do Seasonal Patterns Like “Sell in May” Mean for Investors? Thumbnail

What Do Seasonal Patterns Like “Sell in May” Mean for Investors?

The human brain is excellent at finding patterns, a skill that has evolved to help us across many parts of life. However, it can also lead us astray when there is no real pattern at all, such as when we see shapes in clouds and ink blots. When it comes to investing, this is relevant because some patterns are important, such as the long-term relationship between the market and the economy, while others may be due to pure coincidence. Distinguishing between what makes for interesting trivia versus true investing principles is a challenging but important part of achieving long-term financial success.

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The Bull Market Cycle: Investment Lessons and the Wall of Worry Thumbnail

The Bull Market Cycle: Investment Lessons and the Wall of Worry

It has now been more than three-and-a-half years since the bull market began in October 2022. At that time, inflation was rising at its fastest pace in fifty years, the Fed was hiking interest rates, and ChatGPT was still a month away from being released to the public. Since then, the S&P 500 has more than doubled in value and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index has fully recovered.

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